TEHERAN, desapenari.com — Israel menyerang sejumlah fasilitas nuklir penting Iran pada Jumat (13/6/2025), saat perang mulai berkecamuk.
Meski menimbulkan kerusakan, para ahli menilai serangan ini kecil kemungkinannya menghentikan program nuklir Teheran secara keseluruhan.
Berdasarkan informasi dari Badan Energi Atom Internasional (IAEA), target serangan mencakup situs pengayaan uranium bawah tanah di Natanz dan Fordo (atau Fordow), serta fasilitas konversi uranium di Isfahan. Serangan menghancurkan komponen utama di atas tanah di situs Natanz.
Laporan dari Institut Sains dan Keamanan Internasional (ISIS), lembaga berbasis di Amerika Serikat yang memantau proliferasi nuklir, menyebutkan bahwa pasokan listrik ke Natanz mengalami kerusakan parah.
Analisis citra satelit oleh lembaga ISIS memperkuat dugaan tersebut.
Lembaga tersebut menyatakan melalui AFP (14/6/2025): ‘Jika listrik cadangan terganggu, pabrik pengayaan akan berhenti operasi sementara.’
Sementara itu, Iran mengeklaim kerusakan di fasilitas Fordo yang terletak di selatan Teheran, tidak terlalu signifikan.
Ahli kesulitan menilai dampak serangan pada cadangan uranium Isfahan.
Ali Vaez, Direktur Proyek Iran di International Crisis Group, menyatakan bahwa jika Iran berhasil memindahkan cadangan penting ke lokasi rahasia, maka Israel kalah.
Israel Gempur Iran, Balasan Drone Langsung Mendarat!
Apakah program nuklir Iran bisa dihancurkan?
Israel memiliki kemampuan terbatas untuk menghancurkan seluruh program nuklir Iran.
Menurut Vaez, “Israel mungkin bisa merusak program nuklir Iran, tetapi kecil kemungkinannya dapat menghancurkannya secara total.”
Bom Israel memiliki daya ledak terbatas sehingga tidak mampu menghancurkan fasilitas tersebut.
Hanya militer AS yang punya bom khusus untuk hancurkan fasilitas Natanz dan Fordo yang super terlindungi.
Kelsey Davenport dari Arms Control Association menegaskan: ‘Serangan ini tidak akan menghilangkan keahlian nuklir Iran yang telah mereka kembangkan selama puluhan tahun.’
“Meskipun sembilan ilmuwan nuklir Iran telah tewas, keahlian teknis itu tidak bisa dihancurkan begitu saja,” katanya.
Risiko bagi warga sipil Iran
IAEA menyatakan, belum mendeteksi peningkatan radiasi dari lokasi-lokasi yang terdampak serangan.
“Ada risiko sangat kecil bahwa serangan terhadap fasilitas pengayaan uranium akan menyebabkan pelepasan radiasi yang membahayakan,” jelas Davenport.
Namun, ia memperingatkan bahwa jika Israel menyerang pembangkit listrik tenaga nuklir Bushehr—satu-satunya reaktor nuklir sipil Iran—dampaknya terhadap kesehatan dan lingkungan bisa sangat serius.
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Rafael Grossi, Kepala IAEA, kembali menegaskan larangan menjadikan fasilitas nuklir sebagai target serangan.
Ia memperingatkan, serangan terhadap lokasi nuklir Iran dapat membawa konsekuensi serius bagi rakyat Iran, kawasan, dan sekitarnya.
Seberapa dekat Iran membuat bom nuklir?
Sejak Amerika Serikat keluar dari kesepakatan nuklir Iran pada 2018, Teheran terus mengurangi kepatuhan terhadap perjanjian tersebut.
Iran telah memperkaya 408,6 kilogram uranium hingga 60 persen pada pertengahan Mei lalu, mendekati kadar 90 persen untuk hulu ledak nuklir.
IAEA menyatakan jumlah tersebut secara teoritis cukup untuk memproduksi sekitar 10 bom nuklir jika dimurnikan lebih lanjut.
Iran pun menjadi satu-satunya negara non-nuklir yang memproduksi uranium hingga tingkat ini.
Meski IAEA mengkritik kurangnya kerja sama Iran, badan tersebut mengaku belum menemukan indikasi kredibel tentang adanya program nuklir rahasia yang aktif.
Teheran sendiri menegaskan bahwa mereka tidak berniat mengembangkan senjata nuklir. Akan tetapi, Kelsey Davenport memperingatkan bahwa serangan Israel justru bisa menjadi bumerang.
“Serangan Israel secara teknis mungkin memundurkan Iran, tetapi secara politis justru mendorong mereka lebih dekat ke senjata nuklir,” ujarnya.
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