Desapenari.id – Perang yang melibatkan Amerika Serikat dan Israel melawan Iran kini sudah memasuki minggu ketiga. Para analis dengan tegas memprediksi harga minyak dunia akan kembali meroket begitu perdagangan dibuka awal pekan ini.
Ketegangan di Timur Tengah tidak pernah benar-benar mereda. Justru, pertempuran yang berkecamuk kini mulai mengarah ke titik paling krusial dalam rantai pasok energi global. Para pengamat khawatir serangan rudal terbaru telah membahayakan infrastruktur minyak vital. Lebih mengerikannya lagi, Selat Hormuz—jalur paling sibuk di dunia untuk pengiriman minyak—dilaporkan masih tertutup rapat. Penutupan ini jelas bukan kabar baik; ia langsung memutus arteri utama pasokan minyak mentah ke seluruh penjuru dunia.
Menanggapi potensi krisis yang semakin dalam, Badan Energi Internasional (IEA) langsung bergerak cepat. Pada hari Minggu yang lalu, mereka mengumumkan langkah strategis yang cukup mengejutkan. Lebih dari 400 juta barel cadangan minyak siap mereka guyurkan ke pasar dalam waktu dekat. Langkah darurat ini mereka ambil dengan satu tujuan mulia: menahan laju lonjakan harga yang sudah tidak terkendali akibat perang. IEA merinci, stok darurat dari kawasan Asia dan Oseania akan segera mereka lepas. Sementara itu, pasokan dari Eropa dan Amerika baru akan tersedia pada akhir Maret mendatang, mengingat proses logistik yang lebih rumit.
Sementara itu, harga patokan global sudah menunjukkan tanda-tanda ‘demam’ yang parah. Minyak mentah Brent sukses ditutup di atas 100 dolar AS pada hari Jumat lalu, dan ini terjadi untuk sesi kedua secara beruntun. Angkanya melesat naik 2,67 persen atau setara dengan 2,68 dolar AS, hingga akhirnya berlabuh di posisi 103,14 dolar AS per barel. Jika kita konversikan, angka fantastis itu mencapai Rp 1.749.259 per barel dengan asumsi kurs Rp 16.960 per dolar AS. Tak mau kalah, harga minyak mentah West Texas Intermediate (WTI) AS juga ikut melompat 3,11 persen atau bertambah 2,98 dolar AS, sehingga menetap di level 98,71 dolar AS per barel.
Di tengah hiruk-pikuk pasar, Presiden AS Donald Trump bukannya diam. Ia justru semakin memanaskan situasi dengan mendesak seluruh negara sekutu untuk segera mengerahkan kapal perang mereka. Tujuannya jelas: membantu mengamankan jalur strategis Selat Hormuz yang kini rawan penyergapan. Trump juga tak segan melontarkan ancaman serangan lanjutan. Kali ini, pusat ekspor minyak di Pulau Kharg, Iran, menjadi incaran setelah militer AS sukses menghantam target militer di sana pada hari Sabtu. Ancaman ini sontak memicu respons keras dari Teheran. Mereka dengan lantang menantang dan berjanji akan melakukan pembalasan yang lebih dahsyat.
Tak perlu menunggu lama, drone Iran langsung bergerak. Mereka menghantam terminal minyak utama yang berlokasi di Fujairah, Uni Emirat Arab, tak lama setelah serangan di Pulau Kharg. “Serangan ini menandai babak baru yang jauh lebih mengerikan dalam konflik ini,” ujar Natasha Kaneva, analis dari JP Morgan, dengan nada khawatir.
Fujairah memang bukan lokasi sembarangan. Selain terminal ini, fasilitas pengolahan minyak Abqaiq dan terminal ekspor Ras Tanura di Arab Saudi juga masuk dalam daftar hitam sebagai instalasi energi paling vital dan sangat rentan di kawasan Teluk. Kabar terbaru menyebutkan, operasi pemuatan minyak di Fujairah akhirnya berjalan kembali setelah sempat terhenti. Perlu kita ketahui, Fujairah terletak di luar Selat Hormuz dan berperan sebagai jalur keluar bagi sekitar 1 juta barel minyak mentah Murban, andalan UEA, setiap harinya. Sebagai gambaran, volume sebesar itu setara dengan satu persen dari total permintaan minyak dunia. Angka yang sangat signifikan.
Badan Energi Internasional kembali merilis laporan yang memprihatinkan. Mereka memprediksi pasokan minyak global akan terjun bebas hingga 8 juta barel per hari selama bulan Maret. Penyebab utamanya tentu gangguan pengiriman yang meluas. Di sisi lain, para produsen utama di Timur Tengah terpaksa memangkas produksi mereka setidaknya sebesar 10 juta barel per hari akibat konflik yang tak kunjung usai.
Namun, di tengah ketidakpastian ini, Menteri Energi AS, Chris Wright, justru mencoba menenangkan pasar. Ia memperkirakan perang dengan Iran akan segera berakhir dalam beberapa minggu ke depan. “Pasokan minyak pasti akan pulih dan biaya energi akan turun kembali setelahnya,” tambahnya dengan penuh optimisme. Sayangnya, optimisme itu bertolak belakang dengan sikap politik di lapangan. Pemerintahan Trump dilaporkan secara tegas menolak segala upaya dari sekutu Timur Tengah untuk memulai negosiasi diplomatik. Mereka seolah memilih jalur keras daripada meja perundingan.
Sementara itu, sumber internal yang mengetahui secara langsung upaya diplomatik tersebut membocorkan informasi mengejutkan. Iran telah menolak mentah-mentah kemungkinan gencatan senjata dalam bentuk apa pun, setidaknya sampai serangan AS dan Israel benar-benar berhenti total. Sikap keras kepala dari kedua kubu ini secara otomatis meredupkan harapan masyarakat dunia akan berakhirnya konflik dengan cepat. Selama senjata masih berbicara, selama Selat Hormuz masih tertutup, maka harga minyak diprediksi tidak akan pernah turun. Justru, ia bersiap untuk kembali mencetak rekor tertinggi baru.
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